Know Sure Thing

The Know Sure Thing is a advanced indicators indicator used in Skyrexio Strategy Builder for advanced market analysis and complex signal generation.

Introduction

The Know Sure Thing (KST) is a momentum oscillator that combines four different rate-of-change timeframes to identify major trend changes and cyclical turning points. This advanced indicator provides context-dependent signals with LONG opportunities when crossing above zero and SHORT opportunities when crossing below zero, making it excellent for catching major trend shifts.

How Know Sure Thing Works

Know Sure Thing was developed by Martin Pring as a sophisticated momentum oscillator that combines four different Rate of Change (ROC) periods with different smoothing periods to create a comprehensive momentum picture. The indicator filters out short-term noise while identifying significant momentum shifts.

Construction:

• ROC 1: 10-period ROC smoothed with 10-period SMA

• ROC 2: 15-period ROC smoothed with 10-period SMA

• ROC 3: 20-period ROC smoothed with 10-period SMA

• ROC 4: 30-period ROC smoothed with 15-period SMA

Calculation: KST = (ROC1×1) + (ROC2×2) + (ROC3×3) + (ROC4×4)

• Zero line crossovers - Primary signals for major trend changes • Signal line crossovers - Secondary signals for timing entries • Divergence patterns - Early warning of trend exhaustion • Extreme readings - Identify overbought/oversold conditions • Multi-timeframe nature - Combines short and long-term momentum

Momentum Psychology: KST reveals the underlying momentum structure by combining multiple timeframes. When KST crosses above zero, it indicates that momentum across all timeframes is turning bullish. When it crosses below zero, momentum is turning bearish across multiple timeframes, suggesting a major trend change.

Key Characteristics

Attribute	Details
Category	Advanced Indicators
Type	Momentum Oscillator
Primary Use	Major trend identification
Timeframe	All timeframes supported (1m to 1M)
Confirmation	Volume, price action, signal line

Strategy Applications

🟢 LONG STRATEGY (Primary Use)

Know Sure Thing is primarily used for LONG entries when crossing above zero, indicating bullish momentum across multiple timeframes. This is the indicator's natural bullish signal.

Base Entry Order (LONG)

Trigger Type: Once per bar close
Bar TF: 4H

First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Cross Above
Second Condition: Value
Value: 0

AND

First Condition: Volume
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: Simple Moving Average (20)
Timeframe: 4H

Additional Entry Orders (LONG)

Additional Entry 1: Signal line confirmation
First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Cross Above
Second Condition: Know Sure Thing Signal Line
Timeframe: 4H

AND

First Condition: RSI
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: 50

OR

Additional Entry 2: Momentum acceleration
First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: 50

AND

First Condition: Close Price
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: EMA (50)
Timeframe: 4H

Take Profit Orders (LONG)

Rule 1: Exit condition - KST momentum exhaustion
First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Cross Below
Second Condition: Know Sure Thing Signal Line
Timeframe: 4H

OR

Rule 2: Exit condition - Overbought with momentum divergence
First Condition: RSI
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: 75

AND

First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Less Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: 100

OR

Rule 3: Exit condition - Volume exhaustion signal
First Condition: Volume
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Less Than
Second Condition: Simple Moving Average (20)
Timeframe: 4H

AND

First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Less Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: 50

Stop Loss Orders (LONG)

Rule 1: Stop loss - KST crosses below zero (major trend change)
First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Cross Below
Second Condition: Value
Value: 0

OR

Rule 2: Stop loss - Momentum breakdown confirmed
First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Less Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: -50

AND

First Condition: Volume
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: Simple Moving Average (20)
Timeframe: 4H

OR

Rule 3: Stop loss - Price breaks key support
First Condition: Close Price
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Less Than
Second Condition: EMA (50)
Timeframe: 4H

AND

First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Less Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: -25

🔴 SHORT STRATEGY (Primary Use)

Know Sure Thing provides SHORT opportunities when crossing below zero, indicating bearish momentum across multiple timeframes. This is the indicator's natural bearish signal.

Base Entry Order (SHORT)

Trigger Type: Once per bar close
Bar TF: 4H

First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Cross Below
Second Condition: Value
Value: 0

AND

First Condition: Volume
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: Simple Moving Average (20)
Timeframe: 4H

Additional Entry Orders (SHORT)

Additional Entry 1: Signal line confirmation
First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Cross Below
Second Condition: Know Sure Thing Signal Line
Timeframe: 4H

AND

First Condition: RSI
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Less Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: 50

OR

Additional Entry 2: Momentum acceleration downward
First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Less Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: -50

AND

First Condition: Close Price
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Less Than
Second Condition: EMA (50)
Timeframe: 4H

Take Profit Orders (SHORT)

Rule 1: Exit condition - KST momentum exhaustion
First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Cross Above
Second Condition: Know Sure Thing Signal Line
Timeframe: 4H

OR

Rule 2: Exit condition - Oversold with momentum divergence
First Condition: RSI
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Less Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: 25

AND

First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: -100

OR

Rule 3: Exit condition - Volume exhaustion signal
First Condition: Volume
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Less Than
Second Condition: Simple Moving Average (20)
Timeframe: 4H

AND

First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: -50

Stop Loss Orders (SHORT)

Rule 1: Stop loss - KST crosses above zero (major trend change)
First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Cross Above
Second Condition: Value
Value: 0

OR

Rule 2: Stop loss - Momentum reversal confirmed
First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: 50

AND

First Condition: Volume
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: Simple Moving Average (20)
Timeframe: 4H

OR

Rule 3: Stop loss - Price breaks key resistance
First Condition: Close Price
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: EMA (50)
Timeframe: 4H

AND

First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: 25

Advanced Strategy Combinations

Multi-Timeframe KST Analysis

Setup

Timeframe Hierarchy:

• Weekly: Major trend context (KST direction)

• Daily: Primary signals (zero line crosses)

• 4H: Execution timeframe

• 1H: Fine-tuning entries with signal line

Execution

Entry: 4H KST zero cross confirmed by daily trend Target: Previous swing levels or KST extremes Stop: Opposite zero line cross

KST Divergence Strategy

Setup Process:

1. Price makes new high/low but KST doesn't confirm

2. Look for KST signal line crossover in opposite direction

3. Wait for volume confirmation of the divergence

4. Enter when KST crosses zero line in divergence direction

Execution:

• Base Order: KST zero cross after divergence setup

• Additional: Signal line confirmation

• Take Profit: KST extreme readings or momentum exhaustion

• Stop Loss: Divergence invalidation (new price extreme with KST confirmation)

Cyclical Analysis with KST

Market Cycle Identification:

• Accumulation Phase: KST rising from negative territory

• Markup Phase: KST positive and rising

• Distribution Phase: KST declining from positive territory

• Markdown Phase: KST negative and falling

Trading Approach:

• Buy: During accumulation (KST crossing above zero)

• Hold: During markup (KST positive and rising)

• Sell: During distribution (KST crossing below zero)

• Avoid: During markdown (KST negative and falling)

Risk Management Guidelines

Position Sizing

Strategy Type	Position Size	Conditions
Zero Line Cross	Standard	Clear cross with volume
Signal Line Cross	Reduced (75%)	Secondary confirmation
Divergence Play	Small (50%)	Higher risk setup
Extreme Readings	Avoid	KST >200 or <-200

KST Reliability Factors

High Reliability

✅ Clear zero line crossovers with volume ✅ Signal line confirms the direction ✅ Aligns with longer timeframe trend ✅ Supported by price action patterns

Low Reliability

❌ Choppy movement around zero line ❌ Low volume confirmation ❌ Conflicts with major trend direction ❌ Extreme readings without context

Best Practices

For LONG Strategies

1. Zero line cross - Primary signal for major bullish trends

2. Volume confirmation - Ensure momentum is backed by participation

3. Signal line timing - Use for precise entry timing

4. Divergence analysis - Watch for bullish divergences in downtrends

For SHORT Strategies

1. Zero line cross - Primary signal for major bearish trends

2. Volume confirmation - Ensure momentum is backed by participation

3. Signal line timing - Use for precise entry timing

4. Divergence analysis - Watch for bearish divergences in uptrends

Common Mistakes to Avoid

• Overtrading - Don't trade every signal line cross, focus on zero line

• Ignoring trend - Don't fight major trends based on KST alone

• No volume confirmation - Always confirm KST signals with volume

• Extreme chasing - Avoid entries at extreme KST readings

Market Conditions Analysis

Market Type	LONG Strategy Effectiveness	SHORT Strategy Effectiveness
Uptrend	🟢 High (zero cross up)	🔴 Low (against trend)
Downtrend	🔴 Low (against trend)	🟢 High (zero cross down)
Ranging	🟡 Medium (mean reversion)	🟡 Medium (mean reversion)
High Volatility	🟡 Medium (more signals)	🟡 Medium (more signals)
Low Volume	🔴 Low (wait for confirmation)	🔴 Low (wait for confirmation)

Related Indicators

Indicator	Relationship	Link
MACD	Similar momentum concept	MACD
RSI	Momentum confirmation	RSI
Volume	Signal confirmation	Volume
ROC	Component indicator	ROC

Conclusion

Know Sure Thing is a sophisticated momentum oscillator that excels at identifying major trend changes by combining multiple timeframes. Its zero line crossovers provide some of the most reliable signals for catching major trend shifts in both bullish and bearish directions.

Key Takeaways

• PRIMARY USE: Major trend change identification via zero line crosses

• SECONDARY USE: Entry timing with signal line crossovers

• TERTIARY USE: Divergence analysis for trend exhaustion

• ALWAYS: Confirm with volume and respect longer timeframe trends

Success with Know Sure Thing requires patience to wait for clear zero line crossovers and the discipline to hold positions during major trend moves. The indicator's multi-timeframe nature makes it excellent for position trading and swing trading strategies.

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