# Know Sure Thing

### Introduction

The Know Sure Thing (KST) is a **momentum oscillator** that combines four different rate-of-change timeframes to identify major trend changes and cyclical turning points. This advanced indicator provides **context-dependent signals** with **LONG opportunities** when crossing above zero and **SHORT opportunities** when crossing below zero, making it excellent for catching major trend shifts.

### How Know Sure Thing Works

Know Sure Thing was developed by Martin Pring as a sophisticated momentum oscillator that combines four different Rate of Change (ROC) periods with different smoothing periods to create a comprehensive momentum picture. The indicator filters out short-term noise while identifying significant momentum shifts.

**Construction:**

* **ROC 1:** 10-period ROC smoothed with 10-period SMA
* **ROC 2:** 15-period ROC smoothed with 10-period SMA
* **ROC 3:** 20-period ROC smoothed with 10-period SMA
* **ROC 4:** 30-period ROC smoothed with 15-period SMA

**Calculation:** KST = (ROC1×1) + (ROC2×2) + (ROC3×3) + (ROC4×4)

• **Zero line crossovers** - Primary signals for major trend changes\
• **Signal line crossovers** - Secondary signals for timing entries\
• **Divergence patterns** - Early warning of trend exhaustion\
• **Extreme readings** - Identify overbought/oversold conditions\
• **Multi-timeframe nature** - Combines short and long-term momentum

{% hint style="info" %}
**Momentum Psychology:** KST reveals the underlying momentum structure by combining multiple timeframes. When KST crosses above zero, it indicates that momentum across all timeframes is turning bullish. When it crosses below zero, momentum is turning bearish across multiple timeframes, suggesting a major trend change.
{% endhint %}

#### Key Characteristics

| Attribute        | Details                             |
| ---------------- | ----------------------------------- |
| **Category**     | Advanced Indicators                 |
| **Type**         | Momentum Oscillator                 |
| **Primary Use**  | Major trend identification          |
| **Timeframe**    | All timeframes supported (1m to 1M) |
| **Confirmation** | Volume, price action, signal line   |

### Strategy Applications

#### 🟢 LONG STRATEGY (Primary Use)

{% hint style="success" %}
Know Sure Thing is primarily used for LONG entries when crossing above zero, indicating bullish momentum across multiple timeframes. This is the indicator's natural bullish signal.
{% endhint %}

**Base Entry Order (LONG)**

```
Trigger Type: Once per bar close
Bar TF: 4H

First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Cross Above
Second Condition: Value
Value: 0

AND

First Condition: Volume
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: Simple Moving Average (20)
Timeframe: 4H
```

**Additional Entry Orders (LONG)**

```
Additional Entry 1: Signal line confirmation
First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Cross Above
Second Condition: Know Sure Thing Signal Line
Timeframe: 4H

AND

First Condition: RSI
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: 50

OR

Additional Entry 2: Momentum acceleration
First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: 50

AND

First Condition: Close Price
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: EMA (50)
Timeframe: 4H
```

**Take Profit Orders (LONG)**

```
Rule 1: Exit condition - KST momentum exhaustion
First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Cross Below
Second Condition: Know Sure Thing Signal Line
Timeframe: 4H

OR

Rule 2: Exit condition - Overbought with momentum divergence
First Condition: RSI
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: 75

AND

First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Less Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: 100

OR

Rule 3: Exit condition - Volume exhaustion signal
First Condition: Volume
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Less Than
Second Condition: Simple Moving Average (20)
Timeframe: 4H

AND

First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Less Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: 50
```

**Stop Loss Orders (LONG)**

```
Rule 1: Stop loss - KST crosses below zero (major trend change)
First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Cross Below
Second Condition: Value
Value: 0

OR

Rule 2: Stop loss - Momentum breakdown confirmed
First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Less Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: -50

AND

First Condition: Volume
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: Simple Moving Average (20)
Timeframe: 4H

OR

Rule 3: Stop loss - Price breaks key support
First Condition: Close Price
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Less Than
Second Condition: EMA (50)
Timeframe: 4H

AND

First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Less Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: -25
```

#### 🔴 SHORT STRATEGY (Primary Use)

{% hint style="success" %}
Know Sure Thing provides SHORT opportunities when crossing below zero, indicating bearish momentum across multiple timeframes. This is the indicator's natural bearish signal.
{% endhint %}

**Base Entry Order (SHORT)**

```
Trigger Type: Once per bar close
Bar TF: 4H

First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Cross Below
Second Condition: Value
Value: 0

AND

First Condition: Volume
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: Simple Moving Average (20)
Timeframe: 4H
```

**Additional Entry Orders (SHORT)**

```
Additional Entry 1: Signal line confirmation
First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Cross Below
Second Condition: Know Sure Thing Signal Line
Timeframe: 4H

AND

First Condition: RSI
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Less Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: 50

OR

Additional Entry 2: Momentum acceleration downward
First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Less Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: -50

AND

First Condition: Close Price
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Less Than
Second Condition: EMA (50)
Timeframe: 4H
```

**Take Profit Orders (SHORT)**

```
Rule 1: Exit condition - KST momentum exhaustion
First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Cross Above
Second Condition: Know Sure Thing Signal Line
Timeframe: 4H

OR

Rule 2: Exit condition - Oversold with momentum divergence
First Condition: RSI
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Less Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: 25

AND

First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: -100

OR

Rule 3: Exit condition - Volume exhaustion signal
First Condition: Volume
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Less Than
Second Condition: Simple Moving Average (20)
Timeframe: 4H

AND

First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: -50
```

**Stop Loss Orders (SHORT)**

```
Rule 1: Stop loss - KST crosses above zero (major trend change)
First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Cross Above
Second Condition: Value
Value: 0

OR

Rule 2: Stop loss - Momentum reversal confirmed
First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: 50

AND

First Condition: Volume
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: Simple Moving Average (20)
Timeframe: 4H

OR

Rule 3: Stop loss - Price breaks key resistance
First Condition: Close Price
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: EMA (50)
Timeframe: 4H

AND

First Condition: Know Sure Thing
Timeframe: 4H
Operator: Greater Than
Second Condition: Value
Value: 25
```

### Advanced Strategy Combinations

#### Multi-Timeframe KST Analysis

{% tabs %}
{% tab title="Setup" %}
**Timeframe Hierarchy:**

* **Weekly:** Major trend context (KST direction)
* **Daily:** Primary signals (zero line crosses)
* **4H:** Execution timeframe
* **1H:** Fine-tuning entries with signal line
  {% endtab %}

{% tab title="Execution" %}
**Entry:** 4H KST zero cross confirmed by daily trend\
**Target:** Previous swing levels or KST extremes\
**Stop:** Opposite zero line cross
{% endtab %}
{% endtabs %}

#### KST Divergence Strategy

{% hint style="info" %}
**Setup Process:**

1. Price makes new high/low but KST doesn't confirm
2. Look for KST signal line crossover in opposite direction
3. Wait for volume confirmation of the divergence
4. Enter when KST crosses zero line in divergence direction

**Execution:**

* **Base Order:** KST zero cross after divergence setup
* **Additional:** Signal line confirmation
* **Take Profit:** KST extreme readings or momentum exhaustion
* **Stop Loss:** Divergence invalidation (new price extreme with KST confirmation)
  {% endhint %}

#### Cyclical Analysis with KST

{% hint style="warning" %}
**Market Cycle Identification:**

* **Accumulation Phase:** KST rising from negative territory
* **Markup Phase:** KST positive and rising
* **Distribution Phase:** KST declining from positive territory
* **Markdown Phase:** KST negative and falling

**Trading Approach:**

* **Buy:** During accumulation (KST crossing above zero)
* **Hold:** During markup (KST positive and rising)
* **Sell:** During distribution (KST crossing below zero)
* **Avoid:** During markdown (KST negative and falling)
  {% endhint %}

### Risk Management Guidelines

#### Position Sizing

| Strategy Type         | Position Size | Conditions              |
| --------------------- | ------------- | ----------------------- |
| **Zero Line Cross**   | Standard      | Clear cross with volume |
| **Signal Line Cross** | Reduced (75%) | Secondary confirmation  |
| **Divergence Play**   | Small (50%)   | Higher risk setup       |
| **Extreme Readings**  | Avoid         | KST >200 or <-200       |

#### KST Reliability Factors

{% tabs %}
{% tab title="High Reliability" %}
✅ Clear zero line crossovers with volume\
✅ Signal line confirms the direction\
✅ Aligns with longer timeframe trend\
✅ Supported by price action patterns
{% endtab %}

{% tab title="Low Reliability" %}
❌ Choppy movement around zero line\
❌ Low volume confirmation\
❌ Conflicts with major trend direction\
❌ Extreme readings without context
{% endtab %}
{% endtabs %}

### Best Practices

#### For LONG Strategies

{% hint style="success" %}

1. **Zero line cross** - Primary signal for major bullish trends
2. **Volume confirmation** - Ensure momentum is backed by participation
3. **Signal line timing** - Use for precise entry timing
4. **Divergence analysis** - Watch for bullish divergences in downtrends
   {% endhint %}

#### For SHORT Strategies

{% hint style="success" %}

1. **Zero line cross** - Primary signal for major bearish trends
2. **Volume confirmation** - Ensure momentum is backed by participation
3. **Signal line timing** - Use for precise entry timing
4. **Divergence analysis** - Watch for bearish divergences in uptrends
   {% endhint %}

#### Common Mistakes to Avoid

{% hint style="danger" %}

* **Overtrading** - Don't trade every signal line cross, focus on zero line
* **Ignoring trend** - Don't fight major trends based on KST alone
* **No volume confirmation** - Always confirm KST signals with volume
* **Extreme chasing** - Avoid entries at extreme KST readings
  {% endhint %}

### Market Conditions Analysis

| Market Type         | LONG Strategy Effectiveness    | SHORT Strategy Effectiveness   |
| ------------------- | ------------------------------ | ------------------------------ |
| **Uptrend**         | 🟢 High (zero cross up)        | 🔴 Low (against trend)         |
| **Downtrend**       | 🔴 Low (against trend)         | 🟢 High (zero cross down)      |
| **Ranging**         | 🟡 Medium (mean reversion)     | 🟡 Medium (mean reversion)     |
| **High Volatility** | 🟡 Medium (more signals)       | 🟡 Medium (more signals)       |
| **Low Volume**      | 🔴 Low (wait for confirmation) | 🔴 Low (wait for confirmation) |

### Related Indicators

| Indicator  | Relationship             | Link                                                                                             |
| ---------- | ------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| **MACD**   | Similar momentum concept | [MACD](https://docs.skyrexio.com/strategy-builder/built-in-conditions/momentum-oscillators/macd) |
| **RSI**    | Momentum confirmation    | [RSI](https://docs.skyrexio.com/strategy-builder/built-in-conditions/momentum-oscillators/rsi)   |
| **Volume** | Signal confirmation      | [Volume](https://docs.skyrexio.com/strategy-builder/built-in-conditions/volume-data/volume)      |
| **ROC**    | Component indicator      | [ROC](https://docs.skyrexio.com/strategy-builder/built-in-conditions/momentum-oscillators/roc)   |

### Conclusion

{% hint style="info" %}
Know Sure Thing is a sophisticated momentum oscillator that excels at identifying major trend changes by combining multiple timeframes. Its zero line crossovers provide some of the most reliable signals for catching major trend shifts in both bullish and bearish directions.
{% endhint %}

#### Key Takeaways

{% hint style="success" %}

* **PRIMARY USE**: Major trend change identification via zero line crosses
* **SECONDARY USE**: Entry timing with signal line crossovers
* **TERTIARY USE**: Divergence analysis for trend exhaustion
* **ALWAYS**: Confirm with volume and respect longer timeframe trends
  {% endhint %}

Success with Know Sure Thing requires patience to wait for clear zero line crossovers and the discipline to hold positions during major trend moves. The indicator's multi-timeframe nature makes it excellent for position trading and swing trading strategies.

{% hint style="info" %}
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{% endhint %}